Thursday, October 23, 2008

I Learned A New Word Today: "Outlier"

An "outlier" denotes an empirical result on the margins that most statisticians discard as unreliable or anomalous.

With a cascade of polls showing Barack Obama separating from John McCain, scratching if not realizing a double-digit lead, I was intrigued by the AP-GFK poll released this week showing a virtual dead heat: Obama - 44%, McCain - 43%.

Pollster John Zogby (fingering Obama's lead at 10 points) decries the new poll as a sloppy "outlier," deficient in accounting for a massive surge in college-age voters flocking to the polls this election season.

But for you cocksure Democrats out there, already putting the champagne on ice for your Obama victory celebration, Zogby concedes things remain fluid and forewarns: "anything can happen."


Pat Bateman said...

Please never put "cocksure" and "fingering Obama" in the same post again. In fact, please never put them in any post again. I feel like I need to wash my hands.

Warm Apple Pie said...

Look, all I'm saying is that there is a long way to go and if Obama thinks he is the "cock of the walk" he should not forget to ramrod his supporters to finish the job.