Monday, November 3, 2008

Warm Apple Pie's Final Electoral Map: Obama Prevails, Makes History, But No Landslide (289-249)

Barack Hussein Obama will become the 44th President of the United States of America. See, you can use Barack's middle name in celebration of his rich heritage without subtext, prejudice or innuendo. Tomorrow will be a historic day for America, devoid of dilatory tactics, featuring a timely, heartfelt, stately concession speech by John McCain and culminating in a wonderfully high-flying oration by President-Elect Obama (in the words of Chris Matthews, I think I just got a "thrill up my leg") making the case for national unity. I predict nothing as to the success or failures of Barack Obama's first term. We are not there yet and I want to savor the exultation of this moment without thinking forwards or backwards. I want to immerse myself in the sounds and images. I want to reach out and apply a fleeting, futile grip to the now unappreciated nostalgia of my prospective twilight years.

Enough turgidity. To the numbers . . .

I see trending towards McCain in Pennsylvania, but too little, too late. Per the methodology expressed in my previous post, Grant Park will party early tomorrow night without biting fingernails deep into the witching hour when elections are stolen. And the margin of victory will be big enough to keep lawyers at bay and off the clock.

I see Obama solidifying the support within his Rocky Mountain West trifecta: Nevada, New Mexico and Colorado will vote Obama tomorrow. It is the keystone to Obama's victory and a testament to David Plouffe's electoral strategy in extending the McCain campaign beyond the budgetary limits of its operations.

I see the dead heat of Florida cutting towards McCain, partly due to the concerted, unseemly campaign tactics of sinister RNC surrogates. There is only so much Obama-Bin Laden or Obama-Hitler literature one candidate can withstand. It will be close in Florida despite this ugly calumny, but Obama will lose. However, it will not matter this time.

I see Virginia capitulating to a push from its "Real American" roots and cresting for McCain by 1 or 2 points. North Carolina will come with it. Still, forcing the GOP ticket to expend precious resources in the deep South was a pragmatic move in keeping Republican money away from Iowa and the Rocky Mountain West - states voting for Bush during the last foray.

I tentatively see Ohio going for McCain. This is the election day surprise considering all, but a sprinkling of polls call this state for Obama outside the margin of error. My heart says Obama. My head says McCain. The Obama campaign paid due attention to Ohio and the whirlwind three-stop tour yesterday generated ample energy and over 170,000 attendees. Still, I do not trust Ohio's election infrastructure or its presiding officials, there is corruption coming from both sides in the Buckeye state and the leak of Obama's comments to the San Francisco Chronicle with respect to bankrupting coal plants (out of context or not) will have a bit of resonance, especially in light of the head of the Ohio Coal Association's public response.

If I'm wrong about Ohio, Obama clears over 300 electoral votes as many predict (309 total).

I see the dead heat of Missouri breaking towards Obama by a margin of 2 points. The big urban center of St. Louis wins the day, attracting record numbers of Obama voters. Missouri is the feather in Obama's cap, electoral map gravy, as a state that favored Bush by over 7 points in 2004 comes around to the Democrats.

I see Indiana voting Republican. Obama put up a game fight, but the Hoosiers would vote for John McCain, Sarah Palin, Joe the Plumber, even Tito the Builder. It is a red state. Period.

The rest of the map reflects 2004. 289 to 249. Not the thumping of most commentators' augury, but I only take small sips of the Obama Kool Aid jug, not full swigs.

As far as the popular vote, I think most polling is validated tomorrow and Obama wins by a 5 point margin, 52% to 47% with the remaining 1% cast into the ether of the third-party cosmos. I also predict a larger turnout than 2004 with over 65% of United States citizens over the age of 18 casting a ballot.

Endorsement to come . . .

***UPDATE***: submits its prediction. It gives Obama Virginia and Ohio.


mkits said...

Ohio, Florida and Virginia all to McCain. Wow.

Warm Apple Pie said...

I'm still fence sitting on Ohio, but could straddle it through the election if I'm not careful. Going against the polls here, but something about Ohio makes me queasy.