ZOGBY: MCCAIN MOVES INTO LEAD 48-47 IN ONE DAY POLLING according to the Drudge Report.. . . you may want to hold off on positioning the Greek columns and faux-presidential seal behind the Obama victory lectern. May want to hold off on placing the police barricades around Grant Park in Chicago.
And if you're an Obama supporter, you may want to get to the f**king polls on Tuesday. Bring a friend why don't you or are you too busy celebrating already. Yeah, I'm looking at you Barney Frank, Nancy Pelosi, Harry Reid, the loathsome Chuck Schumer, the god awful Bill Richardson (thanks for the help on that $120,000 middle class tax cutoff statement to nowhere, pal), the wretched Joy Behar, the gruesome Keith Olbermann and the rest of MSNBC (except for Rachel Maddow who is cautious and humble in her infinite wisdom about these unpredictable election contests).
Could the rest of you shut the frig up and let Barack handle his business. The only people allowed to speak this weekend are as follows: Bill Clinton, Hillary Clinton, Al Gore, Joe Biden (someone get Joe the Gaffer a teleprompter please), Colin Powell, Oprah Winfrey and Jesus Christ - if he decides to make an appearance. Christ is an Obama supporter. The meek shall inherit the earth - you know, spreading the divine wealth. Christ was the original redistributor.
3 days! In the words of Al Pacino in Any Given Sunday, "so . . . what are you going to do?"
***UPDATE***: After predicting an easy victory for John Kerry in 2004, Zogby offer this "mea culpa" four days after the election:
Released: November 08, 2004
Mea Culpa: I am a Pollster, Not a Predictor By John Zogby
Okay, I got it wrong. And I got it right. Last May, I did indeed say that John Kerry would win and, if he didn’t, it would be his fault . . .
In short, I also missed the boat and I feel I must explain what happened . . . I felt compelled to poll as late as I could and thought I saw a late-breaking trend for Kerry. Such a trend – fueled by a surge of young voters that was reported to us in our many calls to battleground cities on election day – did not materialize.
My polling was right. My ability to predict was wrong. For those of you who have supported my work over the years, I apologize. I will do better next time: I will just poll, not predict.
Did you learn your lesson, John? Doesn't appear so:
ZOGBY SATURDAY: Republican John McCain has pulled back within the margin of error... The three-day average holds steady, but McCain outpolled Obama 48% to 47% in Friday, one day, polling. He is beginning to cut into Obama's lead among independents, is now leading among blue collar voters, has strengthened his lead among investors and among men, and is walloping Obama among NASCAR voters. Joe the Plumber may get his license after all . . .
Was the Plumber comment necessary? Why don't you just poll, John, and keep the playful predictions to yourself? Take your own advice.
Get one election wrong, shame on Zogby. Get the next election wrong, shame on us for paying Zogby any heed. There won't be a third time.
***UPDATE***: Let me take my medicine. I'm better now. Thanks Gallup. Obama widens margin to double-digits in traditional and expanded methodologies surveying likely voters.
***UPDATE***: Can so many "experts" be dead wrong. Watching ABC's This Week with crusty morning eyes, I was flabbergasted by the margins of victory prognosticated by the panel as George Stephanopoulus went around the room:
George Will: 378 electoral votes to Obama.
Matthew Dowd: 338 electoral votes to Obama (plus a 7% popular vote margin).
Donna Brazile: 343 electoral votes to Obama.
Mark Halprin: 349 electoral votes to Obama
George Stephanopoulus: 353 electoral votes to Obama.
These are staggering predictions. They approach landslide numbers. They support the comparison made by some between McCain and Bob Dole's 1996 campaign (379 electoral votes to Clinton-Gore). These comport with our reader Mkit's projection of 349 electoral votes to Obama.
Pardon me if I'm not equally optimistic. Something in my gut tells me that a number of the battleground states - the margin-of-error states: Missouri, Indiana, North Carolina, Florida, etc. - will break McCain's way. Perhaps I've been watching Fox News too much. Dick Morris would have you believe we are looking at the 2000 election again. I'll get off the fence tomorrow evening and weigh in.
***UPDATE***: CASE CLOSED!!! What a difference a day of polling makes. Drudge cherry picks the outlier and gives us his political version of the 1938 Orson Welles War of the Worlds broadcast. Then, Zogby takes off his "predictor" hat and becomes a pollster again:
UTICA, New York -- After a strong day of polling for Republican presidential candidate John McCain on Friday, Democrat Barack Obama experienced a strong single day of polling on Saturday, retaining a 5.7 point advantage that is right at the edge of the margin of error of the Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby daily tracking poll. The race has remained remarkably stable down the stretch, this three-day rolling average poll shows.
I understand the right-wing punditry's need to make this a close race down the stretch. Don't you turn the channel when your favorite team is getting blown out in the second half?
Oregon and Michigan now toss-up states! North Carolina strongly leaning towards McCain! Cats and dogs living together! Mass hysteria!
