The Penultimate Results: Greetings From Pennsylvania!

Florida in 2000.

Ohio in 2004.

Pennsylvania in 2008?

First, a smattering of the final national polling conducted during the three-day period from October 30 to November 1:

CBS News: Obama +13 (apparently conducted from a pool of 546 Trinity United Church of Christ parishioners)

CNN/Opinion Research: Obama +7

Rasmussen: Obama +5

Gallup Traditional: Obama +8 (Matt Drudge relied on this 51-49 poll last week to show John McCain was chipping away at Obama's lead. Obama has since gained about a point each day since Drudge's "red alert." The traditional model assumes an apathetic response from newly registered voters and places more emphasis on likely voters, among other factors.).

Gallup Expanded: Obama +9

Diageo/Hotline: Obama +5

Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby: Obama +6

Pew Research: Obama +6 (Pew's poll was conducted over a four-day period beginning on October 29. I include it here because Obama enjoyed a +16 lead in the Pew poll during the October 23 to October 26 period and shows a definite trending towards John McCain. Pew essentially projects that undecideds will break evenly on election day, thereby resulting in a 52-46 Obama victory. McCain-Palin spokesperson Rick Davis bets the house that these undecideds will break heavily for McCain.).

But national polling is only part (the secondary part) of the election day equation. The true strength of the Obama campaign, as crafted by the two "Davids" - Plouffe and Axelrod, is its understanding of the electoral map.

Current polling indicates that Barack Obama maintains strong or "leaning" leads in every state carried by John Kerry in 2004 totaling 252 electoral votes. It takes 270 electoral votes to win the presidency. Obama augments this number (accounting for population shifts since the last election) using the Rocky Mountain West - Nevada, New Mexico and Colorado - showcasing a total of 19 electoral votes.

Despite the reported "tightening" of polls spouting from the right-wing punditry, these 19 Western votes solidify Obama's bid for the presidency and makes victory for John McCain a Herculean feat or, more appropriately phrased, a Sisyphean task. It is all uphill and a really big electoral boulder.

Give McCain Ohio and Florida, the most coveted toss-up jewels. Give him the traditional Republican safe harbors of North Carolina, Virginia, Montana, South Dakota and Indiana - states put in play by Obama's broad-based ground campaign. Give him Missouri and its 11 electoral votes notwithstanding a 100,000 person Obama rally in St. Louis last week and that 20% of Missouri's population resides in St. Louis county.

Scoreboard? 278-260. McCain still doesn't win if everything breaks right. And I mean everything.

McCain's advisers understand this. Thus, only one strategy remains: Pennsylvania and its 21 electoral votes. A state won by John Kerry in 2004 by 2.5 points and Al Gore in 2000 by 4.2 points. It is vital that McCain flips one of the 2004 "blue" states to "red." Pennsylvania is the only one within shouting distance and with enough electoral votes to essentially "change the math" of this election.

Want to know what's in store for Barack Obama on Tuesday night? Pennsylvania polls close at 8 p.m. EST. If McCain loses the Keystone state outside the margin-of-lawyers (i.e., more than 3%), you can practically pop the Grant Park bubbly. Something apocalyptic must befall the rest of Obama's map for McCain to wrestle the election away.

On the other hand, if McCain eeks out a Pennsylvania win, in the words of Joe Biden, "gird your loins." It may be a long night.

Most recent Pennsylvania polls (trending towards McCain after double-digit Obama leads earlier in the week. McCain and various 527 political action committees dumped millions into Pennsylvania over the past few days):

Rasmussen one-day poll (November 1): Obama +6

Public Policy three-day poll (October 31 to November 2): Obama +8

Mullenberg three-day poll (October 31 to November 2): Obama +6

One more day of the circus, kiddies! I will publish my formal endorsement for President and election day predictions tomorrow evening. Enjoy your work week, socialists!

BREAKING NEWS: McCain Says Something; I Agree With Him

Campaigning in vain in Pennsylvania, John McCain lambasted Barack Obama - and I agree with him. The issue:

Obama's thirty minute infomercial, where he explains his tax plan, his foreign policy stance and also how the Flowbie haircutting system can save you hundreds of dollars simply by using your existing vacuum cleaner to cut your family's hair beautifully and simply, is supposed to be aired on essentially every network in the country tomorrow night.

McCain excoriated Obama over the program, saying that it was absolutely inexcusable that the airing of the taped message would conceivably delay the start/resumption of the World Series.

McCain left few openings untouched, even bashing Obama for airing a 30-minute commercial Wednesday night that will delay the opening of a World Series baseball game if the series goes to six games.

"No one will delay a World Series game with an infomercial when I'm president," said McCain.

Now THAT is a message I can get behind, John. Do NOT mess with the World Series, Barack. You're treading on thin ice there, pal.

Unfortunately for John, Sarah "Human Cringe-Machine" Palin was there to sound off the full-retard gong again.

"You are such a welcoming and patriotic state," Palin said. "I know we have many patriots in the crowd today."

Phew! Thank Jebus you guys are in Pennsylvania - one of those "patriotic" states. Must have sucked to spend time campaigning recently in those totally un-patriotic states like... wait, now which ones were the un-American states, Governor?

I mean, have we not yet learned our lessons? Now you're by implication suggesting that some states are less or not patriotic? Please enlighten us, Governor... which states are those?

Your reign of stupidity lasts seven more days.

Whoops! Are You Sure You're Not President Bush?

90% of the time I voted with Bush. The other 10% I only spoke like him.

In Western Pennsylvania today, John McCain mangles a punchline, then spends the next eight uncomfortable seconds butchering his subsequent lines in a pretty amusing (no, I just watched it again - it's downright side-splitting. Belly guffaws) effort to remove probably both feet from his mouth.


"Senator Obama's supporters have been saying some pretty nasty things about Western Pennsylvania lately (crowd: boooooooooooooooo). And you know . . . I couldn't agree with them more (crowd: crickets)."

Then, panicking, hurriedly trying to extricate himself from the inextricable verbal maze, McCain insults the rest of the country with a Palin's "Real America"/Pfotenhauer's "Real Virginia" sort of zeal.

"I couldn't disagree . . . with you . . . I couldn't agree with you more . . . then the fact . . . that Western Pennsylvania is the most patriotic, most, ah, god-loving, most . . . most patriotic part of America . . . eh . . . this is a great part of the country."

Ben Smith at Politico is disappointed: "And here I was thinking that that was Park Slope."

I voice similar disappointment that Long Island allegedly didn't make McCain's short list of most holy American sites.

Finally, Cindy McCain and her physical equanimity which has to belie the insanity welling within. Her frozen face is priceless next to McCain's tongue winding in knots - like she's thinking "get it together, old man. For f**k's sake. I'm a beer heiress, you dumb dustmuppet. I deserve the whitest house. You think I bumped uglies with your wrinkled sack all these years for the thrill of the hump? I get nothing for rollin' your old bones? I will wet-ride Todd Palin out of spite on national television, I sh*t you not."