Warm Apple Pie's Final Electoral Map: Obama Prevails, Makes History, But No Landslide (289-249)

Barack Hussein Obama will become the 44th President of the United States of America. See, you can use Barack's middle name in celebration of his rich heritage without subtext, prejudice or innuendo. Tomorrow will be a historic day for America, devoid of dilatory tactics, featuring a timely, heartfelt, stately concession speech by John McCain and culminating in a wonderfully high-flying oration by President-Elect Obama (in the words of Chris Matthews, I think I just got a "thrill up my leg") making the case for national unity. I predict nothing as to the success or failures of Barack Obama's first term. We are not there yet and I want to savor the exultation of this moment without thinking forwards or backwards. I want to immerse myself in the sounds and images. I want to reach out and apply a fleeting, futile grip to the now unappreciated nostalgia of my prospective twilight years.

Enough turgidity. To the numbers . . .

I see trending towards McCain in Pennsylvania, but too little, too late. Per the methodology expressed in my previous post, Grant Park will party early tomorrow night without biting fingernails deep into the witching hour when elections are stolen. And the margin of victory will be big enough to keep lawyers at bay and off the clock.

I see Obama solidifying the support within his Rocky Mountain West trifecta: Nevada, New Mexico and Colorado will vote Obama tomorrow. It is the keystone to Obama's victory and a testament to David Plouffe's electoral strategy in extending the McCain campaign beyond the budgetary limits of its operations.

I see the dead heat of Florida cutting towards McCain, partly due to the concerted, unseemly campaign tactics of sinister RNC surrogates. There is only so much Obama-Bin Laden or Obama-Hitler literature one candidate can withstand. It will be close in Florida despite this ugly calumny, but Obama will lose. However, it will not matter this time.

I see Virginia capitulating to a push from its "Real American" roots and cresting for McCain by 1 or 2 points. North Carolina will come with it. Still, forcing the GOP ticket to expend precious resources in the deep South was a pragmatic move in keeping Republican money away from Iowa and the Rocky Mountain West - states voting for Bush during the last foray.

I tentatively see Ohio going for McCain. This is the election day surprise considering all, but a sprinkling of polls call this state for Obama outside the margin of error. My heart says Obama. My head says McCain. The Obama campaign paid due attention to Ohio and the whirlwind three-stop tour yesterday generated ample energy and over 170,000 attendees. Still, I do not trust Ohio's election infrastructure or its presiding officials, there is corruption coming from both sides in the Buckeye state and the leak of Obama's comments to the San Francisco Chronicle with respect to bankrupting coal plants (out of context or not) will have a bit of resonance, especially in light of the head of the Ohio Coal Association's public response.

If I'm wrong about Ohio, Obama clears over 300 electoral votes as many predict (309 total).

I see the dead heat of Missouri breaking towards Obama by a margin of 2 points. The big urban center of St. Louis wins the day, attracting record numbers of Obama voters. Missouri is the feather in Obama's cap, electoral map gravy, as a state that favored Bush by over 7 points in 2004 comes around to the Democrats.

I see Indiana voting Republican. Obama put up a game fight, but the Hoosiers would vote for John McCain, Sarah Palin, Joe the Plumber, even Tito the Builder. It is a red state. Period.

The rest of the map reflects 2004. 289 to 249. Not the thumping of most commentators' augury, but I only take small sips of the Obama Kool Aid jug, not full swigs.

As far as the popular vote, I think most polling is validated tomorrow and Obama wins by a 5 point margin, 52% to 47% with the remaining 1% cast into the ether of the third-party cosmos. I also predict a larger turnout than 2004 with over 65% of United States citizens over the age of 18 casting a ballot.

Endorsement to come . . .

***UPDATE***: Pollster.com submits its prediction. It gives Obama Virginia and Ohio.

The Penultimate Results: Greetings From Pennsylvania!

Florida in 2000.

Ohio in 2004.

Pennsylvania in 2008?

First, a smattering of the final national polling conducted during the three-day period from October 30 to November 1:

CBS News: Obama +13 (apparently conducted from a pool of 546 Trinity United Church of Christ parishioners)

CNN/Opinion Research: Obama +7

Rasmussen: Obama +5

Gallup Traditional: Obama +8 (Matt Drudge relied on this 51-49 poll last week to show John McCain was chipping away at Obama's lead. Obama has since gained about a point each day since Drudge's "red alert." The traditional model assumes an apathetic response from newly registered voters and places more emphasis on likely voters, among other factors.).

Gallup Expanded: Obama +9

Diageo/Hotline: Obama +5

Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby: Obama +6

Pew Research: Obama +6 (Pew's poll was conducted over a four-day period beginning on October 29. I include it here because Obama enjoyed a +16 lead in the Pew poll during the October 23 to October 26 period and shows a definite trending towards John McCain. Pew essentially projects that undecideds will break evenly on election day, thereby resulting in a 52-46 Obama victory. McCain-Palin spokesperson Rick Davis bets the house that these undecideds will break heavily for McCain.).

But national polling is only part (the secondary part) of the election day equation. The true strength of the Obama campaign, as crafted by the two "Davids" - Plouffe and Axelrod, is its understanding of the electoral map.

Current polling indicates that Barack Obama maintains strong or "leaning" leads in every state carried by John Kerry in 2004 totaling 252 electoral votes. It takes 270 electoral votes to win the presidency. Obama augments this number (accounting for population shifts since the last election) using the Rocky Mountain West - Nevada, New Mexico and Colorado - showcasing a total of 19 electoral votes.

Despite the reported "tightening" of polls spouting from the right-wing punditry, these 19 Western votes solidify Obama's bid for the presidency and makes victory for John McCain a Herculean feat or, more appropriately phrased, a Sisyphean task. It is all uphill and a really big electoral boulder.

Give McCain Ohio and Florida, the most coveted toss-up jewels. Give him the traditional Republican safe harbors of North Carolina, Virginia, Montana, South Dakota and Indiana - states put in play by Obama's broad-based ground campaign. Give him Missouri and its 11 electoral votes notwithstanding a 100,000 person Obama rally in St. Louis last week and that 20% of Missouri's population resides in St. Louis county.

Scoreboard? 278-260. McCain still doesn't win if everything breaks right. And I mean everything.

McCain's advisers understand this. Thus, only one strategy remains: Pennsylvania and its 21 electoral votes. A state won by John Kerry in 2004 by 2.5 points and Al Gore in 2000 by 4.2 points. It is vital that McCain flips one of the 2004 "blue" states to "red." Pennsylvania is the only one within shouting distance and with enough electoral votes to essentially "change the math" of this election.

Want to know what's in store for Barack Obama on Tuesday night? Pennsylvania polls close at 8 p.m. EST. If McCain loses the Keystone state outside the margin-of-lawyers (i.e., more than 3%), you can practically pop the Grant Park bubbly. Something apocalyptic must befall the rest of Obama's map for McCain to wrestle the election away.

On the other hand, if McCain eeks out a Pennsylvania win, in the words of Joe Biden, "gird your loins." It may be a long night.

Most recent Pennsylvania polls (trending towards McCain after double-digit Obama leads earlier in the week. McCain and various 527 political action committees dumped millions into Pennsylvania over the past few days):

Rasmussen one-day poll (November 1): Obama +6

Public Policy three-day poll (October 31 to November 2): Obama +8

Mullenberg three-day poll (October 31 to November 2): Obama +6

One more day of the circus, kiddies! I will publish my formal endorsement for President and election day predictions tomorrow evening. Enjoy your work week, socialists!

Prediction? . . . Pain! Thanks Clubber Lang!

2004 Electoral Map: 100,000 votes in Ohio decide the election.

With less than a week to go, Tim Carney from the GOP stalwart Evans-Novak Political Report offers his November 4 prediction. And my gut tells me Carney is not far off:

- Foresees an Obama victory, becomes the first African-American President of the United States. Pretty remarkable stuff.

- However, deems talk of a Democratic landslide and an unambiguous political mandate to be ludicrous. Fingers a popular vote total for Obama around 52%.

- As for the electoral college, Carney sees a "big win, but not a Reaganesque one" finding certain battleground states where Obama boasts a small lead now to actually lean towards McCain.

- Carney sees the board playing out in this fashion: Florida, Ohio, Indiana, Missouri, North Dakota, Nevada, Florida and North Carolina to McCain. Colorado, New Hampshire, New Mexico and Virginia to Obama. Final electoral tally? 286 to 252. A close race, but greater than the margin of Bush's victory in 2000 over Gore (271-267) and equal to Bush's defeat of John Kerry in 2004 (286-252). The difference with 2004? Virginia, Colorado, Iowa and New Mexico flipped blue and Obama's massive ground operation in the Mountain West succeeds where John Kerry came up short.

Please comment or email the Potatoe with your predictions. We're getting close!

Oh, picture of Clubber:

If you do not vote, he will "crucify you . . . real bad."

Breaking News: Obama Losing to McCain on the Electoral Map . . . Bill O'Reilly's Electoral Map

Oregon and Michigan now toss-up states! North Carolina strongly leaning towards McCain! Cats and dogs living together! Mass hysteria!

Oh, according to Bill O'Reilly. Hahahahaha. Whew! Got me nervous there. All is well.

And as if this shocking development isn't enough, Nielsen ratings show MSNBC's prime-time lineup beating Fox News' long-running sitcoms (including the O'Reilly Factor) three of the past five days in the all important 25 - 54-years-old advertising demographic.

I'm about to state the obvious, but it makes me feel better. Here's the skinny on Fox News: 90% of its viewers are crusty, old, ultra-conservative mummies, diaper-clad and going the way of the Dodo. The other 10% are seething lefty masochists with a sick need to make their blood boil each evening. Fox News has made a sterling brand out of feigned victimization - a cartoonish "fair and balanced" us versus a "liberal media elite" them pitted in an aggrandized "culture war" interminably waged only by their pundits and a few wingnut followers.

Forever relegated to cable because most of the country is rational and sane, Fox News will continue to fight the fabricated fight against an imaginary liberal beast until it is fake-tamed and pretend-controlled before a limited television audience. It is quite the Muppet Babies adventure: "When your world looks kind of left and you wish that you weren't there . . . just close your eyes and turn on Fox, and the liberals won't be there!"

Don't celebrate, MSNBC. You're quickly becoming Fox News' ultra-liberal reflection in the punditry mirror and the reflection ain't too fair (except for Rachel Maddow, recently promulgated as my new celebrity crush freebie, serving a devastating blow to Audrina from The Hills. This new position on freebies has been well received according to my internal polling of the wife demographic.).

***UPDATE***: Add . . . Shepard Smith of, yes . . . Fox News . . . to my ever-growing list of pundit freebies I would tryst about with. And vote a resounding "NO" on Prop. 8 if you're a Californian resident so I can marry Smith for this one:



Without puffed-up apoplexy or pandering, Smith simply, uniquely, sets the record straight. And could there be a more laughable GOP paragon than Sam Wurzelbacher, a.k.a. Joe the Nitwit Plumber?

5 days to go! Don't just vote like all the unctuous celebs demand. THINK . . . then vote.