2004 Electoral Map: 100,000 votes in Ohio decide the election.With less than a week to go, Tim Carney from the GOP stalwart Evans-Novak Political Report offers his November 4 prediction. And my gut tells me Carney is not far off:
- Foresees an Obama victory, becomes the first African-American President of the United States. Pretty remarkable stuff.
- However, deems talk of a Democratic landslide and an unambiguous political mandate to be ludicrous. Fingers a popular vote total for Obama around 52%.
- As for the electoral college, Carney sees a "big win, but not a Reaganesque one" finding certain battleground states where Obama boasts a small lead now to actually lean towards McCain.
- Carney sees the board playing out in this fashion: Florida, Ohio, Indiana, Missouri, North Dakota, Nevada, Florida and North Carolina to McCain. Colorado, New Hampshire, New Mexico and Virginia to Obama. Final electoral tally? 286 to 252. A close race, but greater than the margin of Bush's victory in 2000 over Gore (271-267) and equal to Bush's defeat of John Kerry in 2004 (286-252). The difference with 2004? Virginia, Colorado, Iowa and New Mexico flipped blue and Obama's massive ground operation in the Mountain West succeeds where John Kerry came up short.
Please comment or email the Potatoe with your predictions. We're getting close!
Oh, picture of Clubber:
If you do not vote, he will "crucify you . . . real bad."
Oh, picture of Clubber:
If you do not vote, he will "crucify you . . . real bad."
2 comments:
I've made my preliminary prediction. I've gotten some guff, but I have a feeling in my gut. Obama. Landslide. 349 electoral votes. He flips Florida and Ohio...I might revise as the election gets closer, but the democratic base is extremely energized...and eight years of Bush has left the independents weary...and wary...of the GOP.
brI would bet you our 10,000,000,000,000 deficit that you are wrong. New poll out this morning (NBC/Mason-Dixon) showing Obama only AHEAD 3 IN PA!!!! If Pa, is flipped to McCain, not only is he alive, but very alive - that's a state Kerry won in 2004 and an electoral honey pot.
I will release my prediction on Monday, but it is much closer to Mr. Carney than pie-in-the-sky visions of an Obama landslide - it ain't happening.
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